Keen to buy a home or wondering if it’s a good time to sell property in Hong Kong? Understanding what the future holds for the city’s property market could help you plan your next steps. Here, the team from BMP Wealth outlines some likely scenarios with current property prices in Hong Kong.
Hong Kong consistently ranks among the most expensive places in the world to buy property. However, the Residential Property Price Index fell sharply by 12.52 percent in the third quarter of 2024 – the 11th consecutive quarter of year-on-year decline.
Despite this, many industry professionals still forecast a strong recovery.
Factors to consider for buying property in Hong Kong
#1 Keep an eye on interest rates, supply and demand
Interest rate fluctuations are a big driver of both property prices and transaction volumes. Usually, if the cost of borrowing increases, there’s less demand for property, and prices fall. Mortgage rates in HK hit a 23-year high after 11 increases between 2022 and 2023, contributing towards a 27 percent drop in secondary home prices.
However, rates have been falling since September 2024, and it’s unlikely that they’ll rise again here anytime soon. This could be good news for property buyers who may find it easier to access affordable mortgages. Meanwhile, sellers could benefit from rising prices, as lower borrowing costs increase demand. Increased supply of new homes may also push prices down – the government has some ambitious development projects planned, such as Northern Metropolis and Lantau Vision Tomorrow, which could add over a million new homes to the market in the coming decades.
If you or your children are trying to get their foot on the property ladder, there may be reason for cautious optimism.
#2 The easing of restrictions on residential transactions may increase demand
In 2010, the Hong Kong government began enforcing cooling measures aimed at curbing speculation and stabilising house prices. They included three new stamp duties imposing additional charges on non-permanent residents and others, and mortgage restrictions on the loan-to-value ratio that made it harder for buyers to secure high-leverage mortgages.
Then, in February 2024, the government announced that these new stamp duties would be scrapped; and in October 2024 it announced that the loan-to-value ratio for home mortgages would be relaxed, whether the owner plans to live in it or rent it out, and whether or not they’re a first-time buyer.
Other than an initial flurry of pent-up demand transactions, the market hasn’t reversed direction. However, these changes may encourage non-local buyers and investors to the market, and there could be an increase in transaction volumes in due course.
#3 Economic challenges in mainland China may contribute to a decline in property prices in Hong Kong
The downturn in Hong Kong property prices (nearly 30 percent down from their 2021 peak) is closely tied to China’s slowing economy and the weaker yuan. Demand from mainland buyers had previously been a major force keeping the Hong Kong property market buoyant. However, the current economic challenges in China have made potential buyers more cautious about investing across the border, putting downward pressure on HK property prices.
It remains to be seen whether the removal of extra stamp duties and the easing of other property market restrictions – along with generous deposits some developers are offering – might encourage mainland buyers back to the market.
The South China Morning Post recently suggested that these measures may be having the desired effect. Hong Kong property transactions hit a five-month high in April 2025, and the total value of real estate sales rose 9.8 percent.
If you’re looking to buy or sell a property in Hong Kong in the future, email BMP Wealth at info@bmpwealth.com or call 2905 9041.
This article on understanding property prices in Hong Kong if you want to buy a property first appeared in the June 2025 edition of Expat Living. You can purchase the latest issue or subscribe so you never miss a copy!
